The 13th Iranian presidential election is heating up. Candidates were submitting nomination papers last week. This process continued until Saturday. The Guardian Council will then examine the candidates’ eligibility and release the first list of final candidates in the last week of May, in accordance with the legal procedure.
Presidential elections are due to be held in Iran on June 18.
It will be the 13th presidential election, unlucky for some, but particularly for the Iranian people, who want rid of the theocratic regime that has wrecked their country for the past 42 years.
— Iran Freedom (@4FreedominIran) April 6, 2021
Rejected candidates will be able to submit their objections within two days. The Guardian Council will take two more days to take action. After which the final list will be released. Candidates will campaign for 20 days. In addition to public gatherings, TV debates and media talks will be relatively important.
The Iranian presidential election will be held on June 18 and the results will be almost completed by the night of June 19. Iran holds presidential elections every four years, and the president is directly elected by the people.
The total number of voters this year is close to 60 million, of which about one million voters will exercise their franchise for the first time. The turnout in the last presidential election was just over 61%. Turnout is expected to be relatively low this year due to the Corona epidemic.
The role of political groups and parties in Iran’s domestic politics
Political groups and parties involved in Iran’s domestic politics can be divided into three major categories. Principled, reformist, moderate (However, moderation here does not mean moderation as opposed to extremism, but moderation or moderation as opposed to principles and reforms, because the other two groups of moderation also believe in extremism and commit themselves to moderation.)
In the last election, some groups have been claiming permanent status in addition to these three categories. At one time these three groups, or especially the first two groups, the fundamentalists and the reformists, had a strong political ideology, but now most of them have become personalities. That is, now these groups are introduced to their representative personalities instead of their ideology.
Election participants and the Guardian Council
More than 500 people have submitted their papers for the presidential election. But after the Guardian Council examines the conditions, only eight or nine people will be left in the final race.
Among those who have submitted nomination papers so far are former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former head of state-owned engineering company Khatam-ul-Anbiya, Dr Saeed Mohammad, son of Shaheed Allama Murtaza Motahhari, Ali Motahhari, former assembly-member Masood Pezishkian, Imam Khomeini Foundation members and Former minister Ezzatullah Zarghami and former oil minister Rustam Qasmi are prominent.
— akbarpourafshari (@akbarporafshari) May 11, 2021
Incumbent Chief Justice Ayatollah Ibrahim Raeesi, current Speaker of Parliament Baqir Qalibaf, former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, current Vice President Ishaq Jahangiri, former head of the National Security Council Dr Saeed Jalili, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi are some of the prominent people.
Factors and competition affecting the election’s result
The candidate’s personality, manifesto, media talk, debates and support for important personalities are the key factors influencing the outcome of the Iranian presidential election. The possible agenda of overcoming the economic crisis caused by international sanctions will be the main theme of this campaign and will affect the results.
The real competition will be between the reformist and the principled vote bank. So far, fundamentalist groups and parties have not been able to agree on a single candidate.
Ibrahim Raeesi, Baqir Qali Baf, Saeed Jalili, Saeed Mohammad are the four most likely big candidates, one or two of whom the fundamentalists may agree on. While reformist Ishaq Jahangiri or Masood Pezishkian can agree on either one or both up to the stage of the scenes, Muhammad Arif, a strong reformist candidate, has reportedly already refused to run.
The role of the Iranian president is paramount in all matters, from the formulation and implementation of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy
Jawad Zarif, the current Foreign Minister, has committed political suicide through the audio leak scandal, otherwise, some reformist factions seemed to agree with him. A few days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif apologized for running in the presidential election and called on reformists to field a new candidate. He said the decision was in Iran’s wider interest. The message was broadcasted on his Instagram channel.
Whose weight is heavy?
The balance, meanwhile, appears to be shifting as Ali Larijani, who presents himself as moderate and consistent, is expected to take the field. While reformist groups and parties can have a hand in Ali Larijani, Larijani will also get some support from principled pockets.
Along with him, Ibrahim Raeisi is popular as a strong candidate and lost the election four years ago to incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. But shortly after the defeat, he took over as Chief Justice and took over the reins of the department. He carried out a number of reforms and has since gained immense popularity.
The role of the Iranian president is paramount in all matters, from the formulation and implementation of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. A good president can play a great role in the development of the country but a weak one can further weaken the country internally and externally.
AA Shirazi is currently a PhD scholar along with this he also possesses a firm grip on the International Affairs and Affairs of Islamic countries and can express his effective views through the art of his writing skills. The ideas shared in this op-ed are author’s own and do not represent the editorial policy of Orbital Affairs.